Grave threat awaits Indian elections on Speculation about MH370

P.S: This piece may be considered as a view from a security observer placed in the public domain with the hope that it would attract necessary attention from the authorities to prevent the catastrophe that may be around. It is a sincere hope that this remains a speculation and the threat does not materialize.

It has been a tragedy that 239 passengers remain untraced along with the missing flight MH370 of the Malaysian Airlines. There is a distinct possibility that the flight might have crashed and all the passengers have already perished.

There is however a speculation (Refer here) that the plane might have been hijacked and might have landed safely along with its passengers some where. This “some where” has to be a rogue country which has the necessary air stripe as well as refuelling facilities. It also needs to have the facilities to host the 239 passengers so far without any leak out of information even from the number of mobiles these passengers might have been carrying with them. The speculation also adds a motivation that the aircraft may be used to crash into one of the Indian cities just like the 9/11 attack on USA. Countries which fit into this description are around India with Pakistan being the main suspect.

Despite the odds, the speculation cannot be completely ruled out. It is the duty of every security specialist to consider steps to meet any type of contingencies irrespective of the odds.

Security agencies need to therefore consider “What if the speculation is true?”.

There is one factor which makes the speculation gain some credibility. India is facing a historic election in which the terrorist friendly, weak administration of Congress is expected to give way to a strong government led by Mr Narendra Modi.

If Modi comes to power, there could be many changes in the fortunes of India and its relationship with the neighbors. This is not to the liking of Pakistan or the terrorist outfits supported by Pakistan.

Under these circumstances if a major terrorist attack takes place in India, it would seriously disrupt the elections. If elections cannot be held in time, there would be a constitutional crisis and there would be chaos in the country.

There is also a possibility that following the attack, the Congress may declare “Emergency” on account of external aggression and take full control of the administration, suspend elections until such time as Congress regains the confidence of winning an election.

If such an attack has to take place, the most likely target that causes maximum damage would be a crash on the Rashtrapathi Bhavan or Parliament in Delhi. If it results in the incapcitation of Mr Pranab Mukherjee in any manner, it becomes even more easy to declare emergency in the country.

If however the flight is destroyed before it reaches its target then UPA can take credit and get a huge electoral advantage.

Eitherway, the incident has in store some benefit for UPA and would act against the interests of BJP.  It can even stop the Modi Wave and get back Congress to power even in the election.

If such an attack takes place, then the hijackers would ensure that the plane carries the passengers so that any attempt to shoot down the plane in mid air would be confronted with a humanitarian plea that it should be allowed to land.

There is also a possibility that the hijackers may even pose as if they intend to land along with the passengers and seek permission to land say in Delhi. After reaching Delhi airspace the plane may divert its flight path and crash on an intended spot. Probably at this time the flight may be piloted not by the regular pilot but by some other suicide terrorist.

Forgetting all the electoral advantages that may follow, it is necessary for the Indian defense to be prepared for any eventuality and ensure that the flight if it seeks entry into Indian airspace needs to be diverted only to a desert air stripe and shot down mid air if it fails to respond.

Do the Shinde’s and Antony’s have such guts?

Will the political parties including BJP pledge their support to such drastic action if such an eventualities arise?

Will the families of the 5 Indian passengers accept such a decision unlike the relatives of the Kandhar Indian Airlines hijack incident when the families mounted an attack on Vajapayee in Delhi to ensure a safe passage to the terrorists?

Let’s us keep our fingers crossed even while praying to God that all this talk becomes irrelevant.

Naavi

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Pratap Simha enters Electoral Fray

Mr Pratap Simha the well known columnist of Kannada Prabha is entering the electoral fray as a candidate of BJP from Mysore. The sitting candidate Mr C.H.Vijayashankar is obviously disappointed and has been talking to the media that an “Outsider” has been hoisted on the people of Mysore.

Though I am presently staying in Bangalore, Mysore is my native place and hence I suppose I can express my views on the electoral situation in Mysore.

I would not like to pass any criticism of Mr C.H.Vijayashankar or his achievements as a past M.P. from Mysore. I presume he has done his bit as an MP and my friends in Mysore can confirm. My own experience is that whenever I have tried to be in touch for raising some issues in the Parliament, no MP has reacted positively. Only Mr Rajeev Chandrashekar, has shown some reaction. Since most of the issues I rise are on the issues that affect Netizens, I expected people like Mr Janardhan Swamy to be responsive. But they have not been even acknowledging the e-mails from Netizens let alone raise their issues in the Parliament.

In this context, it would be necessary for new faces to be tried out as people’s representatives and I look at Mr Pratap Simha as one of the persons who may remain responsive to the public especially of the Netizens of Karnataka.

The argument that Mr Pratap Simha is an outsider to Mysore does not hold water. His column in Kannada Prabha is so popular that I can make a safe guess that the total circulation of Kannada Prabha in Mysore would roughly equate to his voter base. (With an average of atleast two from family). This constituency would add to the current BJP voter base and hence he is having better chances of winning as compared to Mr CHV.

 I hope Mr CHV be reasonable to concede that  Mr Pratap Simha is already in the hearts of many Kannada Prabha readers in Mysore and hence is verymuch the insider in Mysore.

Mr Pratap may however require support of the grassroot workers in reaching out to the common people in Mysore and I appeal to Mr CHV to get over his disappointment and whole heartedly extend his support to Mr Pratap Simha.

May be the first move can come from Mr Pratap Simha himself who may call on CHV and request his support.

Let’s look for a coordinated work from the past MP and the new BJP face in Mysore so that BJP can come up with a thumping victory.

Naavi

(As a Citizen of India)

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Emergency in Parliament..this time with the assistance of BJP

Today it was one of the worst days in the days of Indian democracy. It was back on June 25, 1975 that Indira Gandhi declared emergency and withdrew all freedom of press, arrested L K Advani amongst others and ruled the country till 1977 as a dictator.

Today Parliament was blacked out and a very contentious bill on Telengana was passed. Unfortunately this time L K Advani was inside the Parliament and Sushma Swaraj spoke in support of the Bill (As reported). Indirectly both Sushma and Advani have supported not only the bill but also the manner in which the bill was passed.

In other words this Parliamentary Emergency had the blessings of BJP. It is shameful….

This incident is completely against the “United India” cry of Mr Narendra Modi. It s necessary for Mr Modi also to explain to the public how he can support this policy of BJP to divide Andhra much against the will of the people.

(Disclosure: I am not an Andhrite. I am a Kannadiga and I oppose the division of Andhra on principle)

Naavi

(As a citizen of India)

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NRIs need to be allowed to Vote

Though NRIs are eligible to retain and  their voting rights get their names added to the Voter’s list if it is not there, presently NRIs can vote only if th

ey are personally present on the election day at their constituency.

There is a need to change this provision immediately for the next Loksabha election. Any voter should be provided an opportunity to vote either through the postal ballot system already available or through a digitally signed electronic voting system.

Hope the Election Commission takes immediate efforts to make this happen. As regards the NRI voters, the cost of postal ballots can be a concern. However if the voters can submit their postal ballots to the Indian consular offices or if the Consular office  itself is made the polling booth, then NRIs can participate in the elections.

It is understood that BJP has made a representation to the ECI in this regard. (Report in The Hindu)

Naavi

As a Citizen of India

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Anil Kumble enters Election fray

We welcome Mr Anil Kumble entering the Loksabha election as a candidate of BJP. It is reported that he will contest from Uttara Kannada though it was earlier rumored that he may contest against Nandan Nilekani in Bangalore North.

We wish him all the success.

I hope Rahul Dravid also joins BJP and contests from Bangalore.

Naavi

As a Citizen of India

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AAP MLA accused of stopping water to non supporters

Ref: article in Guardian

The lady who was recently accused of slapping an AP MLA in Deli has accused him of having deliberately stopped water supply to their neighborhood because the AAp MLA thinks they did not vote for him.

Mr Arvind Kejriwal as usual seems to have chosen to be silent.

With every passing day, Mr Kejriwal is losing credibility to the extent that AAP no longer remains as a threat to BJP and Congress in Loksabha. He is not even welcome in the Third Front camp and becoming irrelevant by the day.

The fight is therefore slipping back to BJP Vs Congress or NDA Vs UPA.

It was interesting how Modi addressed the Bengal crowd and urged them to vote for BJP in the the Loksabha elections irrespective of what they do in the Assembly elections.

But it was equally interesting to note tht he refrained from adopting a similar approach in TN where he focussed only on anti Chidambaram tirade instead of confronting JJ directly. This may not a good strategy unless this is only a first step. BJP has to confront not only Congress but also JJ and DMK in TN simultaneously. The result could be surprising.

Naavi

As a Citizen of India

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I am sorry I voted for AAP

An informative anti AAP face book page has come up at https://www.facebook.com/IsorryIvotedforAAP

Worth taking a look.

naavi

as a Responsible Citizen of India

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BJP should go alone in Tamil Nadu

The recent election polls indicate that there is a strong wave in favour of Narendra Modi (NaMo) in parts of Northern, Western and Central part of India.

However in the Southern and  Eastern parts, BJP appears to have not achieved the required breakthrough. In West Bengal, Mamta Bannerjee appears to be holding her fort and in Tamil Nadu (TN), Jayalalitha holds the key.

Mamta Bannerjee does not appear to be a PM candidate but there are some ambitions in J.Jayalalitha (JJ)  or at least her party members that she can be a PM prospect. The irony however is that JJ was considered to be personally close to Mr Modi all these years while Mamta was always against him. But in the post poll scenario JJ seems to be a threat to NaMo while Mamta appears to be a reluctant ally.

In this background BJP has to decide its electoral strategy in TN. Assuming that JJ would not be interested in any pre poll alliance with NaMo, BJP has to fight against JJ. DMK has split and become weaker than what it was before. It is therefore a distinct possibility that AIADMK can sweep TN and end up as the largest party in the Parliament after BJP and Congress. In such a scenario, JJ can be pressurized to make an attempt to head a third front.

While JJ is by herself very capable and had she been from a national party could have done a good job as a PM, she may not be as effective as she may like to in leading a third front with several regional parties pulling in different directions. She is too strong to accommodate any body else such as Mamta or Naveen Patnaik or Mayavati and an attempted arrangement which includes such parties will be doomed to fail and will also take a heavy toll on the delicate health of JJ.

My guess is that JJ is very intelligent and knows pretty well that if she accepts the challenge, she would also dilute her control on TN politics and leave a back door for DMK to claw back.  If however, in the post poll scenario, she opts to support NaMo, she may reap lot of benefits including central ministerial berths for her party as well as other kinds of support to her State. Hence instead of opting for a short term glory ending up as an Ex Prime Minister who tried hard but failed to manage a conglomerate of a number of regional parties, she would consider it better in the long term to retain a proxy control on the center.

I therefore think that she would opt to go alone in the pre poll scenario and then decide to support NaMo later at his request extracting her pound of flesh.

In such a scenario, the option available for BJP is to work towards improving its post poll negotiation strength . To achieve this, BJP needs to get as much mileage as possible in the TN during the polls.

However it would not be a good idea for BJP to tie up with Vaiko under a pre-poll alliance partner. Mr Vaiko has a limited support base in TN and cannot contribute more than one seat at the best. On the other hand he is a known LTTE supporter and is diametrically opposed to NaMo’s policy of united India. Whatever support Vaiko enjoys is from a hard core Eelum support base and they need to be kept at arms length. Mr Vaiko has earlier teamed up with both DMK and AIADMK and does not have any policy of his own except Eelum. He has also been jailed earlier for anti national activities.

It will therefore be a huge mistake for BJP to tie up with such an anti national outfit. It may actually cost BJP some voter support which otherwise would be drifting towards them. There is a strong current of nationalism and patriotism in TN which has remained subdued since there are no national parties to support outside the allies of AIDMK and DMK. This voter base would be happy of a non AIADMK, Non DMK nationalist party is available as a choice. In this election where there is no local governance involved, NaMo fits in the bill of a “Nationalist Leader” more powerfully than any other leader in the recent past. It is therefore expected that some of the traditional voter base of Congress will look at NaMo as a credible alternative.Hence BJP has a good chance of increasing their vote share significantly.

It is also possible that some of the support base of DMK may also support BJP to stop JJ from becoming the PM which would be a serious ego hurt for Karunanidhi. There may therefore be an under current of support flowing from DMK to BJP since they are aware that they are on their own not capable of winning beyond two or three seats. The split with Alagiri faction is also likely to diminish the prospect of DMK further and there will be no surprise if they draw a blank in the state.

With the possibility of vote shift from Congress and DMK, BJP therefore has a good chance of winning a few seats on its own in TN if it contests without any allies. It will then reduce the clout of JJ in the post poll scenario.

I therefore urge BJP to take the advise of Mr Subramanya Swamy and forget the pro-Eelum voter base and pitch for a strategy of liberating TN from the “Regional outlook” to embrace a “National” outlook.  This would be a call for reversing the earlier trend where TN has remained separated from the national stream with its “Dravidian” focus. Now the focus should be on how to retain the regional pride without giving up the national outlook. Since this is a Loksabha election, it is possible to credibly sell Modi as a national leader without in any way discrediting the local sentiments which are torn between the two main dravidian parties and several splinter groups.

Hope Mr NaMo looks into this seriously.

Naavi

As a Citizen of India

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AAP’s Black mail expires today

During the last week’s stand off in Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal blackmailed the Congress Government to accept his demand for the suspension of the police officers involved in the Somnath Bharti incident without taking any action against Mr Somnath Bharti. This was considered a climb down for AAP as much as a give in for the Congress. It was subsequently reported that RG disapproved of the move to let the cornered AAP get away.

It was obvious that one of the reasons why Congress relented was that Mr Kejriwal had threatened that he would disrupt the Republic Day parade and “AAM Admi’s will march on Rajpath on the Republic Day”. If this threat had been carried out, there would have been chaos in the city and made international headlines. Congress had neither the guts to take the threat nor perhaps the ability to control such a citizen upsurge though the international community would have clearly seen that this serious threat was based on a relatively insignificant event and AAP would have lost more of its dwindling credibility.

Any way Congress thought that discretion was the better part of valour and avoided a confrontation. Hopefully the Republic Day would pass off without major incidents. Once the day passes off, the blackmail of AAP would be no longer relevant and Congress would be capable of confronting AAP on a more even terrain.

It is therefore time for Congress to show its own capability to administer the country and putting down the anarchist tendencies of AAP before the next trigger comes in the form of an assembly session in the Ram Lila grounds.

Congress has the choice of procrastinating again and swallow its pride and see AAP disrupt the city once again. This will be true to the approach of Dr MMS if he is the person under control. But of RG is in control, it is time to show that Congress cannot be taken lightly.

Congress need to also consider the possibility that if AAP is given any longer rope, they may strangle the Congress itself with some action against Sheila Dikshit. At the present AAP has discredited itself enough for Congress to consider that AAP has outlived its utility for Congress.

It is therefore expected that immediately after the Republic day parade is over, Congress may think of withdrawing its support to the Delhi Government so that LT may ask Kejriwal to prove his majority once again on the floor of the house in the next two or three days to put a bind on AAP. Congress also has enough ground with FIRs being filed against the Law Minister and the Chief Minister of Delhi to even immediately dismiss the Government without the need for a floor test.

We can expect therefore some drama in Delhi in the next few days.

Naavi

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AAP will break the country into pieces

The way Aam Admi Party is behaving in Delhi showing complete disregard to law and order as well as judicial and quasi judicial authorities makes one shudder to think what would happen if these people are give the power.

If ever these people come to power in Loksabha, they will ensure that the country would be broken to pieces with the Police, the Courts and the Governments will all become irrelevant and there will be a complete law less ness in the country.

Fortunately they are unlikely to be in power even in Delhi beyond another week.

But we must accept that they have the potential to create confusion amongst the voters in the 2014 elections and try to snatch several seats from BJP. The result could be a fractured mandate where Non Congress-Non BJP parties may get nearly 200+ seats and deny BJP the crucial 272+ seats.

It is necessary that voters in the country  realize that this party does not deserve to be our representative and give a fitting boot to the party in the Loksabha elections.

We remember that Indira Gandhi declared emergency because they felt that Jaya Praksh Narayan instigated the army to disobey. Now the current Congress regime has not even brought the President’s rule in Delhi though Arvind Kejriwal has incited the Police to be disobedient and called upon the public to disrupt the Republic Day parade.

If Congress is continuing to prop up the AAP in Delhi, it means that they have no concern for the good of the country.

Naavi

As a Citizen of India

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